“Farsighted – How to Make Decisions that Matter the Most”

Farsighted: How to Make Decisions that Matter the Most is written Steven Johnson (Riverhead, 2018). It is a must-read for church leaders who want to help their congregations make better decisions that address our usual cognitive biases and faulty intuitions.

In August, 2010 American Intelligence experts learned that an Osama bin Laden courier entered a fortified compound in the remote Pakistani city of Abbottabad.  They launched an extensive planning process that resulted on the successful May 2011 raid by US Special Forces.  What did they learn?

Johnson reminds us that thesuccess of the mission was not just due to  the soldiers who risked their lives to complete it. It also depended on the planners who had learned from previous mistakes. The key for the planners was to run a 2 phase decision-making process.

Johnson explains in Farsighted that planners first widened their thinking. They did this by defining the situation well and surfacing information. Only then did they begin considering numerous options.  This full appraisal worked because it led to them considering various alternatives. This was because they could play out different scenarios so the mission could be successful. They prepared well for any unforeseen reality.

Years of research and personal experience, have concluded that the human mind has biases. These biases lead us to misunderstand the past, misconstrue the present, and badly foresee the present. Nevertheless, there is hope.

Johnson shares practical tools that can improve our ability to make wise decisions – helping you to be farsighted.  He provides several examples of real life decisions and the deliberations that went into making them. We can learn creative steps to do the same.  This is how we become farsighted. Whatever choices your congregation faces these steps can ensure your success.

When we are faced with complex choices, we tend to frame problems too narrowly.  This results in eliminating creative solutions.  To combat this situation, Johnson outlines a process that draws from a diverse, wider group to generate options.  Most notably, he argues for including people from the ‘fringe’ of your organization and those impacted by the choices. He urges us to let them participate and offer suggestions.  Most groups usually only include their leadership base which results in fewer options that others can support.

Moreover, Johnson reminds us that a diversity of viewpoints is not enough to deal with the problems we face.  We must accumulate more than shared knowledge to consider all the viewpoints.  Most organizations, for example, never consider more than a single option or way forward.  This often leads to a gravitational pull toward how we usually frame a problem. As a result people often miss the nuances and creative discoveries that can result from scenario planning.  The “if this, then that” mentality can help us to deal with situations beyond our control and anticipate how to deal with them wisely.  Scenario planning allows you to play out how various versions of the future  may develop and to handle them well.

Did you know that most groups tend to make a decision only to be blocked later in implementing it when new factors come to light?  When you engage in scenario planning, it allows you to prepare for whatever happens next.  To be sure, this form of analysis can be overdone and paralyze a group from making any decision at all.  Yet this form of planning also allows you to make decisions that can creatively handle any situation well.

Johnson also shares tools like ‘linear value modeling.’ This helps us to make decisions that are congruent with who we are as an organization.  Looking at possible ‘bad outcomes’ helps us decide well.  Also, the skill of ‘generating all the information’ necessary to make a decision allows you to be resilient and to maturely face the consequences of your decisions.  Ultimately, surfacing information and generating options prepares people to trust their intuition and resolve issues well.

Speaking from the heart, the author concludes that we can draw from our shared stories and experience. The result is that we are not doomed to repeat previous mistakes. This proactive approach can create an unlimited sense of opportunity to face the future instead of short-changing our decision making by only doing what worked in the past.

There is also a summary and analysis of the book available here.